Guessing is now over! Now we wait to see when the snow comes.

It is that time of year again when we give you the chance to guess the first snow day of the 2015-16 winter season.  If you correctly guess the day you will get a free:

MMR Hoodie
1/2 Pound of Ranch Coffee
Tasting Box for Cao Artisan Chocolate

All guesses must be in by October 10th, and they must be posted as comments to this page.  If there are multiple correct guesses, one will be randomly selected from that group.

The official snow will be determined by Ranch staff.  It must amount to a clearly noticeable amount of snow, but accumulation is not needed to count. If we have a very early snow, you must have made a guess 24 hours before the first snow.

A special note from a meteorological friend Bob:

Ok, so Donnie asked me for a short paragraph on this winter’s outlook. He has this crazy idea that since I went to college for meteorology that somehow I have some insight into forecasting. So, let me first dispel that notion. In college, I participated in the national forecasting contest and fell below the computer’s forecast scores. So, maybe you want to just listen to the computer? (Hey, even chess masters have been beaten by computers. They’re pretty smart.) Let’s talk about what I do know (since telling you what I don’t know would take too long). This is a strong El Nino year. “So, what” you say, “what do Pacific ocean temperatures have to do with the weather in Spring Creek, PA?” Well, God set up a linkage between the atmosphere and ocean. Warmer temperatures off the west coast of South America sets up a different pattern for the jet stream which sets up different weather. Ok, was that too geeky? Let me get back to basics. In strong El Nino years, the Great Lakes area typically has a milder winter, warmer lakes, and a later start to Winter. Though you may have light snow in October, November, and December, winter doesn’t really get cranking until January in El Nino years. And, given that the lakes stayed warmer, when the Lake Effect gets going (arctic air moves over warm water), you can still get some good snow totals in January, February, and March. Confusing enough? Wow, I’m not sure I know when the first measurable snow will be based on all that. I can tell you that the earliest measurable snow that ever happened was on October 1st, 2003. Other than that, I’d vote for later than last year because of the late start to winter expected. But, then again, what do I care, I live in sunny Southern Arizona. Ha! Ready to guess now? Go!!!!

Post your guess below!